It has been almost two years since each State and Territory in Australia implemented the Nationwide Agreement on Firearms. In 1997, Australia recorded 85 fewer firearm-related deaths than in 1996 (50 fewer if one excludes the victims of Port Arthur from the 1996 total). However, as a result of the many issues associated with evaluation research, it is still too soon to deter-mine definitively whether Australia’s uniform firearms laws have achieved their aim in reducing firearm-related violence and misuse.
The findings outlined in this paper from a preliminary analysis of data on causes of death and official crime statistics seem to indicate that, nationally, there has been a decline in firearm-related deaths in 1997, mostly due to a decline in the rate of suicides and accidents. This reduction has occurred in each State and Territory, with the exception of NSW and Victoria. There is also preliminary evidence that in some cases, for example suicide and armed robbery, firearms may be being displaced by other methods or weapons. Without an outcome evaluation that also takes into account socio-demographic factors, we cannot determine more conclusively the impact of the new firearms restrictions. In the meantime, the Australian Institute of Criminology will continue to monitor firearm-related violence and misuse.