Criminology Research Council grant ; (7/92)
The report of this project is entitled 'Estimating the Numbers of Heroin Users in the ACT', Feasibility Research into the Controlled Availability of Opioids Stage 2, Working Paper Number 1, by Ann Larson.
An accurate estimate of the numbers of heroin users in the ACT is essential for determining the feasibility of a trial to provide opioids to dependent users in a controlled manner. Not only does it indicate whether or not the extent of the problems warrants a trial, but it is also vital for establishing the feasibility of proposed trial evaluation techniques.
The ACT Drug Indicators Project data for 1988 and 1989 were examined using list-matching techniques (also known as capture-recapture and indicator/dilution). This gave an estimate of around 1000 people who see their heroin use as a 'problem', with a standard deviation of around 200. This is consistent with the 'best' estimates derived using other, more refined techniques.