In this report, we investigate the effects of the Pathways to Prevention Project on the onset
of youth offending. We find persuasive evidence for the impact of an enriched preschool
program, the communication program, in reducing by more than 50 percent the number of
young people becoming involved in court-adjudicated youth crime by age 17. We find equally
strong evidence that comprehensive family support increased the efficacy and sense of
empowerment of parents receiving family support. No children offended in the communication
program if their parents also received family support, but family support on its own did not
reduce youth crime. The rate of youth offending between 2008 and 2016 in the Pathways
region was at least 20 percent lower than in other Queensland regions at the same low
socio‑economic level, consistent with (but not proving) the hypothesis that the Pathways
Project reduced youth crime at the aggregate community level.
References
URLs correct as May 2024
AIHW see Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
Allen J, Homel R, Vasco D & Freiberg K 2023a. Classification trees in the Pathways to Prevention Project. Working Paper 4. Griffith Criminology Institute
Allen J, Homel R, Vasco D & Freiberg K 2023b. Family support, parent empowerment, and children’s classroom behaviour in the Pathways to Prevention Project. Working Paper 1. Griffith Criminology Institute
Allen J, Homel R, Vasco D & Freiberg K 2023c. Risk and protective factors for serious youth offending at the transition to high school in the Pathways to Prevention Project. Working Paper 2. Griffith Criminology Institute
Allen J, Homel R, Vasco D & Freiberg K 2023d. The Rowe Behavioural Rating Inventory (RBRI) and the Parent Empowerment and Efficacy Measure (PEEM). Working Paper 3. Griffith Criminology Institute
Australian Bureau of Statistics 2023a. Population estimates by SA2 and above (ASGS2016), 2001 to 2021—Final. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2021#data-downloads
Australian Bureau of Statistics 2023b. Population estimates by SA2 and above (ASGS2021), 2001 to 2021—Final. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2021#data-downloads
Australian Bureau of Statistics 2023c. Regional population. ABS https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2021-22
Australian Bureau of Statistics 2021. Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), Australia methodology. https://www.abs.gov.au/methodologies/socio-economic-indexes-areas-seifa-australia-methodology/2021
Australian Bureau of Statistics July 2017. Population Estimates by Statistical Area Level 2 (ASGS 2011), 2006 to 2016. https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3218.02016?OpenDocument
Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011. Australian and New Zealand Standard Offence Classification (ANZSOC). https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/classifications/australian-and-new-zealand-standard-offence-classification-anzsoc/2011
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) 2023. Youth justice in Australia 2021–22. AIHW catalogue number JUV 140. Canberra: AIHW. https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/youth-justice/youth-justice-in-australia-2021-22/
Beitchman JH et al. 2001. Fourteen-year follow-up of speech/language impairment and control children: Psychiatric outcomes. Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry 40: 75–82
Beitchman J et al. 1996. Long-term consistency in speech/language profiles: II. Behavioural, emotional, and social outcomes. Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry 35(6): 815–825
Bierman KL, Heinrichs BS, Welsh JA, Nix RL & Gest SD 2017. Enriching preschool classrooms and home visits with evidence-based programming: Sustained benefits for low-income children. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry 58(2): 129–137. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.12618
Biesanz JC, Falk CF & Savalei V 2010. Assessing mediational models: Testing and interval estimation for indirect effects. Multivariate Behavioral Research 45(4): 661–701. https://doi.org/10.1080/00273171.2010.498292
Blank M, Rose SA & Berlin LJ 2003. The Preschool Language Assessment Instrument, 2nd ed. Austin, Texas: PRO-ED. https://www.proedinc.com/Products/10895/preschool-language-assessment-instrument--second-edition-plai2.aspx
Blank M, Rose S & Berlin L 1978. The language of learning: The preschool years. New York: Grune & Stratton
Bor W, Najman JM, O’Callaghan M, Williams G & Anstey K 2001. Aggression and the development of delinquent behaviour in children. Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 207. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi207
Brady E, Holt S & Whelen S 2018. Measuring success in family support services. Child Care in Practice 24: 351–368. https://doi.org/10.1080/13575279.2017.1299113
Branch S, Homel R & Freiberg K 2012. Making the developmental system work better for children: Lessons learned from the Circles of Care Programme. Child and Family Social Work 18: 294–304. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2206.2012.00845.x
Breiman L, Friedman J, Olshen R & Stone C 1984. Classification and regression trees. Wadsworth Int. Group 37(15): 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315139470
Broidy LM et al. 2003. Developmental trajectories of childhood disruptive behaviors and adolescent delinquency: A six-site, cross-national study. Developmental Psychology 39(2): 222–245. https://doi.org/10.1037/0012-1649.39.2.222
Catalano RF et al. 2021. Applying the social development model in middle childhood to promote healthy development: Effects from primary school through the 30s and across generations. Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology 7: 66–86. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-020-00152-6
Cattan S, Conti G, Farquharson C, Ginja R & Pecher M 2021. The health effects of universal early childhood interventions: Evidence from Sure Start. Working Paper 21/43. Institute for Fiscal Studies. https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2022-10/WP202243-The-health-effects-of-universal-early-childhood-interventions-evidence-from-Sure-Start.pdf
Chaskin RJ 2006. Family support as community-based practice: Considering a community capacity framework for family support provision. In P Dolan, J Canavan & J Pinkerton (eds), Family support as reflective practice. London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers: 41
Cooper J, Paske K, Goodfellow H & Muhleim E 2001. Social skills training to reduce aggressive and withdrawn behaviours in childcare centres. Bowral, NSW: Child and Family Service, Bowral Community Health Centre
Crable EL, Drainoni M-L, Jones DK, Walley AY & Hicks JM 2022. Predicting longitudinal service use for individuals with substance use disorders: A latent profile analysis. Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment 132: 108632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsat.2021.108632
Crosnoe R, Mistry RS & Elder Jr GH 2002. Economic disadvantage, family dynamics, and adolescent enrollment in higher education. Journal of Marriage and Family 64(3): 690–702. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-3737.2002.00690.x
Deković M et al. 2011. Effects of early prevention programs on adult criminal offending: A meta-analysis. Clinical Psychology Review 31: 532–544. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2010.12.003
Developmental Crime Prevention Consortium (Ross Homel with Interdisciplinary Research Team) 1999. Pathways to prevention: Developmental and early intervention approaches to crime in Australia (Summary Report, Full Report and Appendices). Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.16749.56800
Dolan P, Pinkerton J & Canavan J 2006. Family support: From description to reflection. In P Dolan, J Canavan & J Pinkerton (eds), Family support as reflective practice. London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers: 11–23
Doyle FL et al. 2023. Policies are needed to increase the reach and impact of evidence-based parenting supports: A call for a population-based approach to supporting parents, children, and families. Child Psychiatry & Human Development 54: 891–904. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10578-021-01309-0
Dunst CJ & Trivette CM 2009. Capacity-building family-systems intervention practices. Journal of Family Social Work 12: 119–143. https://doi.org/10.1080/10522150802713322
Eck J & Guerette R 2012. Place-based crime prevention: Theory, evidence and policy. In B Welsh & D Farrington (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Crime Prevention. Oxford University Press: 354–383
Edwards B et al. 2011. Early impacts of Communities for Children on children and families: Findings from a quasi-experimental cohort study. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health 65: 909–914. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2010.118133
Elias G, Hay I, Homel R & Freiberg K 2006. Enhancing parent–child book reading in a disadvantaged community. Australian Journal of Early Childhood 31: 20–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/183693910603100104
Elias G et al. 2002. Enhancing non-English speaking preschoolers’ emergent literacy skills. ThaiTESOL Bulletin 15(2): 63–68. https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/4031
Enders CK 2023. Missing data: An update on the state of the art. Psychological Methods. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000563
Fagan AA 2013. Family‐focused interventions to prevent juvenile delinquency: A case where science and policy can find common ground. Criminology & Public Policy 12(4): 617–650. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12029
Fagan AA & Benedini KM 2016. How do family-focused prevention programs work? A review of mediating mechanisms associated with reductions in youth antisocial behaviors. Clinical Child and Family Psychological Review 19: 285–309. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10567-016-0207-0
Fagan AA, Hawkins JD, Catalano RF & Farrington DP 2019. Communities That Care: Building community engagement and capacity to prevent youth behavior problems. New York: Oxford University Press
Farrington DP 2007. Childhood Risk Factors and Risk-Focussed Prevention. In M Maguire, R Morgan & R Reiner (eds), The Oxford handbook of criminology, 4th ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press: 602–640
Farrington DP, Gaffney H & White H 2022. Effectiveness of 12 types of interventions in reducing juvenile offending and antisocial behaviour. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice 64(4): 47–68. https://doi.org/10.3138/cjccj.2022-0022
Farrington DP, Ttofi M & Lösel F 2016. Developmental and social prevention. In D Weisburd, DP Farrington & C Gill (eds), What works in crime prevention and rehabilitation: Lessons from systematic reviews. New York: Springer: 15–76
Feldman BJ, Masyn KE & Conger RD 2009. New approaches to studying problem behaviors: A comparison of methods for modeling longitudinal, categorical adolescent drinking data. Developmental Psychology 45(3): 652–676. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0014851
Fernandez E 2007. Supporting children and responding to their families: Capturing the evidence on family support. Children and Youth Services Review 29: 1368–1394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2007.05.012
Freiberg K 2004. The Pathways to Prevention Project Communication Intervention: Theory and practice. Unpublished document. Brisbane: Griffith Criminology Institute
Freiberg K et al. 2023. The development and properties of a scalable digital measure of social and emotional wellbeing for middle childhood. Applied Developmental Science 28(3): 323–345. https://doi.org/10.1080/10888691.2023.2208753
Freiberg K et al. 2005. Creating pathways to participation: A community-based developmental prevention project in Australia. Children and Society 19: 144–157. https://doi.org/10.1002/CHI.867
Freiberg K, Homel R & Branch S 2014. The Parent Empowerment and Efficacy Measure (PEEM): A tool for strengthening the accountability and effectiveness of family support services. Australian Social Work 67(3): 405–418. https://doi.org/10.1080/0312407X.2014.902980
Freiberg K, Homel R & Branch S 2010. Circles of Care: The struggle to strengthen the developmental system through the Pathways to Prevention project. Family Matters 84: 28–34. https://search.informit.org/doi/pdf/10.3316/agispt.20102409
Freiberg K, Homel R & Lamb C 2007. The pervasive impact of poverty on children: Tackling family adversity and promoting child development through the pathways to prevention project. In A France & R Homel (eds), Pathways and crime prevention: Theory, policy and practice. Cullompton, Devon, UK: Willan Publishing: 226–246
Geatches L, Preston C & Putnis A for Equity Economics and Development Partners 2023. Where are we? Place-based approaches to tackling community challenges in Australia. Sydney: The Paul Ramsay Foundation. https://www.paulramsayfoundation.org.au/news-resources/where-are-we-place-based-approaches-to-tackling-community-challenges-in-australia
Goodman R 1997. The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire: A research note. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry 38(5): 581–586. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7610.1997.tb01545.x
Goodyer IM 2000. Language difficulties and psychopathology. In DVM Bishop & LB Leonard (eds), Speech language impairments in children: Causes, characteristics, interventions and outcomes. Hove, UK: Psychological Press: 227–245
Hay I, Elias G, Fielding-Barnsley R, Homel R & Freiberg K 2007. Language delays, reading delays and learning difficulties: Interactive elements requiring multidimensional programming. Journal of Learning Disabilities 40: 400–409. https://doi.org/10.1177/00222194070400050301
Higgins JPT et al. (eds) 2023. Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions version 6.4 (updated August 2023). http://www.training.cochrane.org/handbook
Hodgkinson T & Harris B 2022. The impact of the ‘Not Now, Not Ever’ recommendations on police-reported domestic violence in Queensland, Australia. Violence Against Women 28: 15–16: 3703–3725. https://doi.org/10.1177/10778012211060857
Hohl BC et al. 2019. Creating safe and healthy neighborhoods with place-based violence interventions. Health Affairs (Project Hope) 38(10): 1687–1694. https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00707
Homel R 2021. Developmental crime prevention in the 21st century: Generating better evidence and embedding it in large scale delivery systems. Journal of Developmental and Life Course Criminology 7(1): 112–125. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-021-00163-x
Homel R, Branch S & Freiberg K 2024. Building capacity for sustainable, scalable, place-based youth crime prevention. In C Malvaso, TR McGee & R Homel (eds), Frontiers in developmental and life-course criminology: Methodological innovation and social benefit. UK: Routledge: 148–160. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003294740-14
Homel R, Bumbarger B, Freiberg K & Branch S 2017. Sustaining crime prevention at scale: Transforming delivery systems through prevention science. In B Teasdale & M Bradley (eds), Preventing crime and violence: Volume 3 of Advancing Prevention Science. New York: Springer: 351–376. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44124-5_29
Homel R et al. 2006a. The Pathways to Prevention Project: The first five years, 1999–2004. Sydney: Griffith University & Mission Australia. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/29461951
Homel R et al. 2006b. The Pathways to Prevention Project: Doing developmental prevention in a disadvantaged community. Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 323. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi323
Homel R, Freiberg K, Branch S & Le H 2015a. Preventing the onset of youth offending: The impact of the Pathways to Prevention Project on the behaviour and wellbeing of children and young people. Report to the Criminology Research Advisory Council. Grant: CRG 30/11–12. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. https://www.aic.gov.au/crg/reports/crg-3011-12
Homel R, Freiberg K, Branch S & Le H 2015b. Preventing the onset of youth offending: The impact of the Pathways to Prevention Project on child behaviour and wellbeing. Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 481. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi481
Homel R, Lamb C & Freiberg K 2006. Working with the Indigenous community in the Pathways to Prevention Project. Family Matters 75: 36–41
Homel R, Lincoln R & Herd B 1999. Risk and resilience: Crime and violence prevention in Aboriginal communities. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology 32: 182–196
Homel R & Thomsen L 2017. Developmental crime prevention. In N Tilley & A Sidebottom (eds), Handbook of crime prevention and community safety, 2nd ed. UK: Routledge: 57–86. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/373105447
Justice Reform Initiative 2022. State of incarceration: Insights into imprisonment in Queensland. https://www.justicereforminitiative.org.au/reports
Kagitcibasi C, Sunar D, Bekman S, Baydar N & Cemalcilar Z 2009. Continuing effects of early enrichment in adult life: The Turkish Early Enrichment Project 22 years later. Journal of Applied Developmental Psychology 30: 764–779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appdev.2009.05.003
KPMG 2018. Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project: Impact assessment. https://apo.org.au/node/206461
Kumpfer KL & Alvarado R 2003. Family-strengthening approaches for the prevention of youth problem behaviors. American Psychologist 58(6–7): 457–465. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.58.6-7.457
Layzer J, Goodson B, Bernstein L & Price C 2001. National evaluation of family support programs: Final report Volume A: The meta-analysis. Washington, DC: Department of Health and Human Services. https://www.acf.hhs.gov/opre/report/national-evaluation-family-support-programs-final-report-volume-meta-analysis
Leijten P et al. 2017. Research review: Harnessing the power of individual participant data in a meta-analysis of the benefits and harms of the Incredible Years parenting program. Journal of Child Psychology & Psychiatry 29: 99–109. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.12781
Livingston M, Stewart A & Palk G 2006. A micro-simulation model of the juvenile justice system in Queensland. Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 307. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi307
Manning M, Homel R & Smith C 2010. A meta-analysis of the effects of early developmental prevention programs in at-risk populations on non-health outcomes in adolescence. Children and Youth Services Review 32: 506–519. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2009.11.003
Marmot M & Bell R 2012. Fair society, healthy lives. Public Health 126: S4–S10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2012.05.014
Massi L et al. 2023. ‘This has changed me to be a better mum’: A qualitative study exploring how the Australian Nurse–Family Partnership Program contributes to the development of First Nations women’s self-efficacy. Women and Birth: Journal of the Australian College of Midwives 36(6): e613–e622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wombi.2023.05.010
McCarthy M 2021. How universal is the youth crime drop? Disentangling recent trends in youth offending through a socio-economic lens. Victims & Offenders 16(6): 796–818. https://doi.org/10.1080/15564886.2020.1855281
McCarthy P & Kerman B 2010. Inside the belly of the beast: How bad systems trump good programs. Administration and Policy in Mental Health and Mental Health Services Research 37: 167–172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10488-010-0273-4
McConnell D, Breitkreuz R & Savage A 2012. Parent needs and family support service outcomes in a Canadian sample. Journal of Social Work 13: 447–470. https://doi.org/10.1177/1468017311434819
Melhuish E, Belsky J, Leyland AH & Barnes J 2008. Effects of fully-established Sure Start Local programmes on 3-year-old children and their families living in England: A quasi-experimental observational study. The Lancet 372(9650): 1641–1647. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61687-6
Muthén LK & Muthén BO 2017. MPlus user’s guide, 8th ed. Muthén & Muthén
Olds DL et al. 2019. Prenatal and infancy nurse home visiting effects on mothers: 18-year follow-up of a randomized trial. Pediatrics 144(6): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2018-3889
Pidano AE & Allen AR 2015. The Incredible Years Series: A review of the independent research base. Journal of Child and Family Studies 24: 1898–1916. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10826-014-9991-7
Piquero AR et al. 2016. A meta-analysis update on the effects of early family/parent training programs on antisocial behavior and delinquency. Journal of Experimental Criminology 12: 229–248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-016-9256-0
Queensland Government Statistician’s Office 2023. Estimated Residential Population. https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/statistics/theme/population/population-estimates/regions
R Core Team 2022. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.R-project.org/
Reynolds AJ, Temple JA & Ou S-R 2010. Preschool education, educational attainment, and crime prevention: Contributions of cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Children and Youth Services Review 32(8): 1054–1063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2009.10.019
Rivara FP 1995. Crime, violence and injuries in children and adolescents: Common risk factors? Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health 5: 367–385. https://doi.org/10.1002/cbm.1995.5.4.367
Rowe KJ & Rowe KS 1997. RBRI profile user’s guide: Interactive software for the assessment and monitoring of child/student externalizing behaviours at home and school (Version 1.2, Clinical). Melbourne: Centre for Applied Educational Research. ISBN 0 7325 0828 2
Rowland B et al. 2022. Evaluation of Communities That Care: Effects on municipal youth crime rates in Victoria, Australia: 2010–2019. Prevention Science 23: 24–35. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11121-021-01297-6
Sanders MR 2023. The Triple-P system of evidence-based parenting support: Past, present, and future directions. Clinical Child and Family Psychology Review 26(4): 880–903. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10567-023-00441-8
Sanders MR 2012. Development, evaluation, and multinational dissemination of the Triple P-Positive Parenting Program. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology 8: 345–379. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-032511-143104
Schweinhart LJ 2013. Long-term follow-up of a preschool experiment. Journal of Experimental Criminology 9: 389–409. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-013-9190-3
Skinner GC, Farrington DP & Shepherd JP 2020. Offender trajectories, health and hospital admissions: Relationships and risk factors in the longitudinal Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 113(3):110–118. https://doi.org/10.1177/0141076820905319
StataCorp 2021. Stata Statistical Software: Release 17. College Station, TX: StataCorp LLC
Sylva K & Colman P 1998. Preschool intervention to prevent behaviour problems and school failure. In A Buchanan & BL Hudson (eds), Parenting, schooling and children’s behaviour. Sydney: Ashgate Publishing: 178–191
Therneau T & Atkinson B 2022. rpart: Recursive Partitioning and Regression Trees_. R package version 4.1.19, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rpart
Thurber KA et al. 2020. Strengths-based approaches for quantitative data analysis: A case study using the Australian Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children. SSM-Population Health 12: 100637. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2020.100637
Toumbourou J et al. 2017. Strengthening prevention and early intervention services for families into the future. Deakin University and Family & Relationship Services Australia (FRSA). https://apo.org.au/node/75137
VanderWeele TJ & Vansteelandt S 2010. Odds ratios for mediation analysis for a dichotomous outcome. American Journal of Epidemiology 172(12): 1339–1348. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwq332
Vygotsky L 1978. Mind in society. London: Harvard University Press
Webster-Stratton C 1996. Child Dinosaur Curriculum: Social skills and problem solving. Leader’s Guide. Washington, DC: University of Washington
Welsh BC & Farrington DP 2007. Scientific support for early prevention of delinquency and later offending. Victims & Offenders 2(2): 125–140. Https://doi.org/10.1080/15564880701263114
Whittaker K, Cox P, Thomas N & Cocker K 2014. A qualitative study of parents’ experiences using family support services: Applying the concept of surface and depth. Health and Social Care in the Community 22(5): 479–487. https://doi.org/10.1111/hsc.12101