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Trends in violent crime
The public's perception is that violence is increasing, but trends in violent
crime reported to police since the early 1990s reveal a mixed story. Homicide
has decreased by nine percent since 1990 and armed robbery by one-third since 2001, but recorded
assaults and sexual assaults have both increased steadily in the past 10 years
by over 40 percent and 20 percent respectively. The rate of aggravated assault
appears to have contributed to the marked rise in recorded assault, and for both
assault and sexual assault the rate of increase was greater for children aged
under 15 years, with increases almost double that of the older age group.
Neither population changes among young adult males nor rates of offending seem
to explain the trends in recorded violent crime, and indicators of change in
reporting to police provide only a partial explanation. Based on self-reported
victimisation and reporting to police, it would seem increased reporting of
assault is somewhat responsible for the rise in recorded assault rates against
adult victims. However, victimisation survey data suggest there has been little
change in rates of sexual assault, although reporting to police by women seems
to have increased. Victimisation survey data also do not illuminate the most
significant recorded increase in violent victimisation, against children, as
they are collected less frequently and only apply to those aged at least over
15 years. The paper speculates that the rise could be due to better public
understanding of child protection issues and increased reporting due to public
awareness of what constitutes physical and sexual assault - especially within
the family - but this requires further investigation to examine how many
recorded violent crimes against children relate to current and/or past events
and of the relationship to the offender.
Judy Putt
General Manager, Research
Violent crime, with the intention of causing (or threatening) physical harm or
death to the victim, attracts more attention and debate than other forms of
crime. Sustained media attention combined with high-profile incidents - such as
the shootings at Port Arthur (Tasmania), and Monash University and Flinders Lane
in Melbourne; gang rapes in Sydney; and organised crime-related murders - have
prompted a view among the Australian public that violent crime is increasing in
Australia. Over two-thirds of Australians (70%) interviewed in the 2003
Australian Survey of Social Attitudes believed crime had increased since 2001;
39 percent of respondents thought it had 'increased a lot' (Indermaur &
Roberts 2005). However, commentators on violent crime are more cautious in their
interpretation of the trends. Earlier research that examined changes in violent
crime detected sustained increases in recorded rates of assault, sexual assault
(rape) and robbery that began or intensified in the 1990s (Carcach 2005;
Indermaur 1996, 2000; Ross & Polk 2005). While rates of recorded assault and
sexual assault continued to rise into the early 2000s, rates of robbery began
to decline. In contrast, the homicide rate has remained relatively stable since
it peaked in the 1970s. Any year-to-year fluctuations observed in homicide rates
is believed to be more a function of the small number of homicides that occur in
Australia each year than any real changes in incidence (Mouzos 2000).
Homicide is often used as a gauge of the level of violence occurring in
society, so the different patterns observed for other types of criminal violence
have necessitated their closer scrutiny to help explain the disparity. Some of
the increase in recorded violent crime has been attributed to increased
reporting to police. However, Ross and Polk (2005) argued that changes in rates
of homicide, assault and robbery more likely reflect real changes in the
occurrence of these crimes than in a greater propensity to report. Lack of
correlation between patterns in recorded crime data with that drawn from
victimisation surveys suggests that such an assumption cannot be made so readily
(Carcach 2005).
Given the divergent views it seems that explaining trends in violent crime is
no easy undertaking. This paper aims to contribute to the discussion by
ascertaining if trends in rates of homicide, assault, sexual assault and robbery
identified in earlier papers have continued from the early 1990s into the
following decade. Furthermore, it will examine whether discrepancies between
recorded crime and victimisation survey data still exist, and explore possible
reasons for discrepancies.
Violent crime is generally defined as including the offence categories of
homicide, assault, sexual assault and robbery (both armed and unarmed).
As the most serious form of violence, and the least open to interpretation,
homicide is considered the most reliable indicator of violent crime. Data on
homicide are considered the most accurately and consistently collected of all
violent crime data (Davies & Mouzos 2007; Indermaur 2000).
Data on other categories of violent crime are arguably less reliable for a
number of reasons. First, some crimes are not reported to police, and violent
crimes are particularly affected by a general reluctance to report. Estimates
from Australian Bureau of Statistics victimisation surveys (ABS 2006a, 2006b)
have suggested that as many as two-thirds of such crimes are not reported. Of
the alleged crimes that are reported, some may end up not being recorded by the
police (Carcach & Makkai 2002). Second, changes in police policy and
attitudes, and improvements in recording practices and databases used to store
incident data, suggest that recent recorded violent crime data are more rigorous
than earlier data. Another variable is the effect of different jurisdictional
definitions of categories of violent crime, particularly with regard to what
offences constitute crimes such as assault and sexual assault.
Victimisation surveys are another source of trend data used to interpret
patterns in crime. However, self-reported victimisation data have their own
inherent problems. These are largely related to issues of recall and, especially
for sensitive topics such as sexual assault, an unwillingness to relate an
experience of violence. With the use of appropriate methodological approaches,
victimisation surveys are considered to better estimate the extent of violent
crime occurring in the population, as they capture not only those people who
have reported an incident of crime, but also a proportion of those who did
not.
Caution should be used when interpreting the results from various data sources.
Actual rates calculated from recorded crime and victimisation survey data will
not necessarily be the same because of the different ways the base data are
derived. Furthermore, rates estimated from different victimisation survey data
may not tally, as methodological approaches can elicit differential patterns of
response. For example, it is feasible that people interviewed in the ABS Women's
Safety Survey (WSS)/Personal Safety Survey (PSS) series would be more inclined
to report their experience of violent crime than those participating in the
ABS Crime and Safety Survey (CSS). This is because respondents to the WSS/PSS
have been recruited for a study focusing specifically on experience of physical
and sexual violence, whereas the CSS is a supplement to a monthly Labour Force
Survey, and covers both household and personal crime. Respondents to the latter
survey may be less forthcoming about their experience of sensitive crimes such
as sexual assault.
Another consideration is the age range included in the survey. Recorded crime
data cover all ages, whereas the CSS comprises people aged 15 years and over,
and the WSS/PSS and the International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS: Australian
component) includes people aged 18 years and over. Comparing trends between
recorded crime data and victimisation survey data could be misleading,
particularly if a change in the incidence of violent crime is more apparent
within an age group not included in either data source.
Homicide has followed a cyclical pattern since the start of the 20th century,
characterised by a trough coinciding with World War II (1939-45), followed by
a steady increase to peak at a rate of around 2.0 per 100,000 in the 1970s and
1980s. As homicide offenders are almost always male, historical and social
changes affecting the male population in Australia have been used to explain the
more marked changes in homicide trends (James & Carcach 1997: 2).
Homicide rates since the early 1990s have fluctuated slightly from year to year
(influenced by the relatively small number of victims), but the overall trend
has been downward (Figure 1). Since 1989-90, there has been
a significant downward trend, with the number of homicide victims declining by
nine percent from 330 to 301 (Kendall's tau = -0.43; p
Assault is the most common form of violent crime; rates of recorded assault have
been increasing steadily over the past 10 or more years. Between 1995 and 2006,
the rate of recorded assault rose significantly from 562.8 to 829.4 per 100,000
people (Kendall's tau = 0.88, p<0.05), an="" increase="" of="" 47="" percent="">Figure 2). Other research suggests this increase is not a
recent phenomenon, but started to rise in the 1970s (Chappell 1995).
The rate of recorded assault has increased for males and particularly for
females. The rate of increase was also greater for people aged 0-14 years (37%
between 1996 and 2003) than for those aged 15 years and over (27%) (Figure 2).
It is the rate of aggravated rather than non-aggravated assault that appears to
have contributed to the marked rise in assault rates. For the years where data
are available (1999 to 2006), rates of aggravated assault increased by 46
percent (41% for males and 61% for females). In contrast, non-aggravated
assault rates rose by only seven percent (3% for males and 19% for females).
Results from victimisation surveys produce a less conclusive picture. Overall
rates of assault did not increase significantly over the four survey years of
the CSS, nor was a consistent pattern observed from the ICVS (4.4% in 1992; 6.4%
in 2000 and 4.7% in 2004). When considering gender, the CSS suggests a an
increase in the experience of assault among men and women but neither were
statistically significant.
Around one-third of people who experience an assault report the incident to
police (ABS 2006a). Reporting rates for assault have increased - 31 percent in
2005, up from 28 percent in 1998 (CSS). Reporting rates increased for males (26%
to 29%) and females (30% to 34%), and were higher for females in two of the
three reference years (1998 and 2005). The PSS did not detect gender-based
differences in reporting rates - 33 percent for both males and females.
The prevalence of sexual assault is also reported to be increasing. Since 1995,
the rate of recorded sexual assault increased by 22 percent, from 72.5 per
100,000 people in 1995 to 88.4 in 2006 (Kendall's tau = 0.67, p<0.05)>Figure 3).
A more equivocal pattern emerges from victimisation surveys. The victimisation
rates from the CSS for sexual assault (all persons) in 2002 and 2005 were
comparable, at 0.2 and 0.3 percent respectively. Rates for females remained
steady between 1998 and 2002 at 0.4 percent. A small but not significant
decline was observed in the WSS/PSS series, from 1.9 percent of women in 1996 to
1.6 percent in 2005. Less than one percent of men (0.6%) in 2005 reported a
recent sexual assault.
An increase in recorded sexual assault among younger Australians is thought to
have contributed to the rise in sexual assault. In the 10-year period between
1995 and 2005, the incidence of recorded sexual assault for children aged 0-14
years accounted for around 40 percent of all recorded sexual assaults. Since the
early 1990s, the increase in rates of sexual assault for this age group was the
same as for people aged 15+ years (23% compared with 24%). However, scrutiny of
the period where much of the increase occurred (between 1999 and 2003) shows the
increase among the 0 to 14-year-old age group was more than double that of
people aged 15+ years (37% compared with 17%). Rates of sexual assault increased
for both males and females aged 0-14 years but more so among females (27%
increase for females aged 0-14 years between 1996 and 2003, compared with 19%
for males of the same age).
If we contrast recorded sexual assault rates for females aged 15+ years with
data from the CSS, the initial discrepancy between the two data sources starts
to fade. While an increase in rates of recorded sexual assault for the 15+ age
group still exists for the period covered by the victimisation surveys, it is
considerably less pronounced than when using total population rates.
Most victims of sexual assault are female and few report the assault to police.
According to Farrington, Langan and Tonry (2004), victimisation survey data from
the late 1990s suggest the propensity for females to report sexual assault is
increasing. Certainly, data from the 1996 WSS and 2005 PSS confirmed this
observation - 19 percent of women in 2005 said they had reported the most
recent incident of sexual assault compared with 15 percent in 1996. An increase
was also observed in the percentage of women who reported any experience of
sexual assault that occurred since the age of 15 (16% in 2005 up from 9% in
1996). In contrast, the CSS finds the rate to have decreased, from 33 percent in
1998 to 20 percent in 2002. However, without data broken down by sex from the
2005 CSS it is not possible to determine whether this decrease has been
sustained.
Robbery is classified as a violent crime, as the loss of property is usually
accompanied by use or threat of violence against the victim. For example, in
2005 over one-third of people who had experienced a robbery in the previous 12
months had suffered physical injury as a result of the robbery (ABS 2006a).
However, most robberies are committed without weapons. The percentage of armed
robberies has fluctuated over the past 10 years but generally accounted for 40
percent of all robberies in any given year.
Recorded rates of armed robbery began to increase in the early 1990s, peaking
twice in 1998 and again in 2001 (Figure 4). The second peak
was followed by a marked decline to a rate of 36.5 per 100,000 in 2006. Unarmed
robbery followed a similar pattern, although characterised by just one peak
before dropping to 47.4 per 100,000 in 2006.
Data from the CSS generally support the pattern observed in recorded rates of
robbery. Robbery victimisation rates in 1998 and 2002 were similar, at 0.5
percent and 0.6 percent respectively, before dropping in 2005 to 0.4 percent.
ICVS robbery rates declined but not significantly (p>0.05). In 1992, 1.3
percent of people reported being a victim of robbery (1.2% in 2000 and 0.8% in
2004).
People tend to report crimes like robbery more readily than they do assault or
sexual assault.
According to the CSS, around half of all robbery victims in 1998 and 2002
reported the robbery to police, but by 2005 only 40 percent did so. Future data
will help determine whether this decrease in reporting is specific to the 2005
survey or reflective of a general trend since 2002.
Recent commentators examining trends in violent crime have emphasised the
difficulty in providing a concise explanation (Carcach 2005; Indermaur 1996,
2000; Ross & Polk 2005), particularly for:
- the different pattern in rates of homicide compared with those of other
violent crimes
- the differential correlation between trends in violent crime derived from
recorded crime data, victimisation survey data and reporting data.
Some observers have found a strong or reasonable correlation between trends
(Ross & Polk 2005), whereas others contend there is little or no association
(Carcach 2005). What is agreed is that increases detected in rates of violent
crime are not necessarily an indicator of increasing violence in Australia.
Australians' experience of robbery, as reported in victimisation surveys,
generally support the trend observed in recorded robbery data. Until the early
2000s, the propensity for victims to report robberies remained relatively
static, suggesting that the increase in rates of robbery reflected a real rise
in victimisation.
Robberies are often committed to help finance drug purchases (Chilvers &
Weatherburn 2004) and consequently, shifting patterns in drug availability and
cost influence the prevalence of robberies. Changes in heroin supply are thought
to have contributed to the rapid rise and then decline in robbery rates in New
South Wales between 2000 and 2002 (Chilvers & Weatherburn 2004), but the
absence of relevant data from other jurisdictions does not help observers assess
if similar scenarios occurred elsewhere. Future data will ascertain whether the
nationwide decrease in rates of recorded robbery represents a genuine decline
in robbery victimisation or is a consequence of decreasing reporting rates.
Recorded rates of both assault and sexual assault have followed a sustained
upward trend since the early 1990s. A simultaneous increase in the reporting of
assault suggests this is somewhat responsible for the rise in assault rates. The
relationship between rates of recorded sexual assault against those estimated
from victimisation surveys is less conclusive, as victimisation surveys produced
inconsistent patterns in reporting behaviour. An increased awareness of what
constitutes physical and sexual assault (particularly for assaults occurring
within the family), a diminishing of associated taboos, a tendency for delayed
reporting, and improved police and judicial responses to reports of assault all
represent factors likely to have influenced willingness to report (Borzycki
2007; Cook, David & Grant 2001; Lievore 2003; Taylor & Mouzos 2006).
The large increase in recorded assault and sexual assault among males and
females aged 0-14 years could be correlated with better public understanding of
child protection issues. A coinciding increase in child protection notifications
and substantiations has been attributed in part to increased public awareness
and hence reporting of child abuse cases (AIHW 2006). Family violence, in
particular domestic violence, has also received greater attention recently from
political, justice and media spheres. This is likely to have influenced some
reporting behaviour among women. Most assaults against women are perpetrated by
a partner or family member; almost half (46%) of women physically assaulted
since the age of 15 were assaulted by a current or ex-partner and 37 percent by
a family member (ABS 2006b).
Some association was found between recorded rates of assault and rates drawn
from victimisation surveys, but it was mostly inconsistent for sexual assault
data, with victimisation survey data contradicting the increase observed using
recorded sexual assault data. Examination of rates of recorded sexual assault
data for females aged 15+ years revealed a considerably less graded trend line,
suggesting that much of the increase occurred in the 0 to 14-year-old age
group.
Age composition effects on crime have been used to explain in part changes in
crime rates, specifically relating to a decrease in the proportion of young
males (the primary offending age group) with a decrease in crime in the United
States during the mid-1980s to late 1990s (Steffensmeier & Harer 1987;
Steffensmeier & Harer 1999). However, similar associations have not been
observed in other developed countries (Aebi 2004; Gartner & Parker 1990) or
for specific crimes such as homicide (Gartner 1990), and this also appears to
be the case for Australia. Neither population changes among males aged 15-19
years nor corresponding changes in their rates of offending (per 100,000
population; based on police statistics from Victoria, Queensland and South
Australia) - which have both declined over the observation period - exhibit a
significant relationship with trends in homicide, robbery or sexual assault
(p>0.05). The relationship with assault is ambiguous; while significant, it
is small and in the opposite direction to that expected (that is, a decline in
the rate of offending among males aged 15-19 was associated with an increase in
assault rates) (regression coefficient = -0.03, p<0.05, r2="0.44).">
Another factor for consideration is the change in weapon use. Since 1989-90, the
proportion of homicides committed with a firearm has declined, while the
proportion committed with a knife or a blunt instrument has increased. However,
only the change in firearm-based homicides is significant (Kendall's tau =
-0.62, p<0.05). the="" trend="" in="" firearm-based="" homicide="" correlates="" positively="" with="" overall="" homicide="" rates="" (kendall's="" tau="0.51,"><0.05), which="" suggests="" that="" differential="" firearm="" use="" is="" associated="" with,="" but="" not="" necessarily="" impacting="" on,="" patterns="" of="" homicide="" occurring="" in="" australia="" over="" the="" past="" 20="">
Crime data can only represent what people are willing to report, either in a
formal sense (to police) or informally (as captured in crime victimisation
surveys). With increased community awareness and understanding of violent crime,
changes in the way the justice system manages violent offences, and a greater
commitment on the part of victims to report experience of violence, the
capacity for different sources of crime data to reflect real and consistent
changes in specific crimes is strengthened. Nonetheless, some inconsistency
still exists between the two primary sources of violent crime data. This,
combined with the absence of recent national data on crimes such as assault
and sexual assault, has made it difficult to determine whether there has been an
increase in some forms of violent crime over the past 10-15 years or if
experience of these violent crimes is just more likely to be reported now than
it was in the past. Greater consistency between data sources in their definition
of specific crimes is one suggested approach to smoothing out these differences
(Carcach 2005: 323).
If homicide is the yardstick by which the level of violence in society is
measured, then the belief that violence is increasing in Australia cannot be
substantiated. The significant increase in recorded assault and sexual assault
potentially contradicts this view, but without supporting evidence from other
sources of information, such an interpretation can only remain provisional.
Further research will need to examine how much of the increase in recorded
violent crime against children relates to current or past events. Further
refinement of crime data sources to improve their comparability, and longer-term
assessment of crime patterns, may also offset future problems in interpreting
and understanding trends.
All URLs were correct at 11 May 2008
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Dr Samantha Bricknell is a research analyst in the Crime Monitoring Program at the Australian Institute of Criminology
